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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

د پي ټي آئي نابالغتوب او نيټو سپلائي

 


زۀ دا پوسټ صرف د پي ټي ائي په مخالفت کښي نه کوم بلکه د قامي مفادو په چوکاټ کښې ئې کوم.

1. ډرون حملې د مرکزي حکومت په مرضۍ کېږي او د نيټو د رسد لارې بندول اصل کښې خپل حکومت او خپل اولس له نورې مسلې پېدا کول دي. 

2. د نيټو د رسد مسله د خارجه پاليسۍ مسله ده او خارجه پاليسي د مرکزي حکومت کار دے.

3. خو پاکستان کښې خارجه پاليسي مرکزي حکومت هم نه جوړوي بلکه دا پاليسۍ د پخوا راسې د پوځ په لاس کښې ده.

4. د يو جمهوري پاکستان د ترقۍ له پاره ضروري ده چې سياسي پارټۍ اور پارليمان دومره بالغ نظره شي چې پوځ په دے مجبوره کړي چې خارجه پاليسي د پارليمان د لاندې کړي.

5. د پي ټي ائي حکومت خپل وخت او انرجي په داسې کارونو کښې ضائع کوي چې د خپل حکومت ستونځې او د خپلو خلقو مسلې سېوا کوي.

6. د ډرون خلاف اواز راپورته کولو د پاره پارليمان، مرکزي حکومت او اسلام اباد شته، د پښتونخوا د عوامو کاروبار او تګ راتګ متاثره کولو سره د پښتنو مسلې به نورې هم زياتېږي.

7. يو بالغ نظره حکومت او سياسي ګوند د قامي مفاداتو خيال ساتي او صرف مخالفت برائے مخالفت نه کوي. د تېر حکومت ډير ښۀ کارونه هم وو چې صوبائي حکومت له جاري ساتل پکار دي او ورسره نوې داسې کارونه هم شورو کول پکار دي چې د اولس ستونځې هوارې شي.

8. د اتلسم ترميم نه پس د نورې صوبائي خودمختارۍ د پاره کوشش، د پارليمان بالادستي، د خارجه پاليسۍ د پارليمان د لاندې راوړل، ګاونډيانو سره ښۀ تعلقات او عوام دوسته حکومت داسې بنيادي کارونه دي چې سياسې ګوندونو له پرې اختلاف نه دې کول پکار.

9. ډرون حملې د مرکزي حکومت په مرضۍ کېږي چې ئې د طالبانو د ملا تير مات کړې دي او زيات تره طالب کمانډران ئې د مينځه وروک کړې دي او دومره توان نه لري چې حکومت مجبوره کړي. ځکه ښۀ په تول سياسي مظاهرې کول پکاري او 

افغانستان نن پرون


امريکه غواړي چې افغانستان سره امنیتي تړون لاسلیک کړی ،دغه تړون امریکا ته په افغانستان کې د لسو کالو لپاره د پاتې کیدو اجازه ورکوي.چې ترمخه به ئې د 7000 نه واخله تر 15000 پورې امريکنيان عسکر د افغانستان د داخلې اور خارجي دهشت ګردۍ مخنيوه کوي او د افغانستان ملي پوځ او نورې سيکيورټي ادارے به مضبوطوي.

نن افغانستان يو خپلواکه او مستحکم رياست دې. د پاکستان د افغانستان سره دښمني کې تاوان او دوستۍ کښې ډېرې فايدے دي.
د افغانانو خپل نفسيات دي او دوي سر د پاسه سر نۀ مني. افغانان غواړي چې امريکې سره یوه داسې تړون لاس ليک کړي چې روس او چين هم خپه نۀ شي او د افغانانو استقلال ته هم څۀ خطر نۀ وي.

ولسمشر حامد کرزي له امریکا سره د افغانستان د امنیتي تړون پر سر د سلا مشورو لپاره د دے تړون ډرافټ لويې جرګې ته وړاندې کړې دې او په دې اړه یې له یو شمیر هیوادونو سره سلامشورې هم کړې دي
د لويې جرګې 50 رکني کميټي به د دے ډرافټ جائزه اخلې. 

هم دے دوران کښې ولسمشر لويې جرګې تاریخی وینا کې وویل، که پارلمان په دې تړون مثبت رایه هم ورکړي، دغه تړون به له سالمو ټاکنو وروسته لاسلیک شي. چې زما په خيال د افغانستان په تاريخ کښې ئې مثال نشته.

امير يعقوب خان ته به د کابل د زمري ځوئ وئيلې کېدو، ولې د افغانانو سياسي ناپوهۍ او دننۍ ناچاقۍ د زمرې د ځوي نه ګيډړ جوړ کړو او د افغانستان د ټولو نه سپکه لوظنامه چې ورته د ګندامک لوظنامه وئيلي شي، په لاس ليک کولو مجبور شو.

هم دا حال د امير عبدالرحمان هم وو. امير سره د ډيره پوهه دومره کمزورې وو چې د ډيورنډ لائن لوظنامه ئې لاس ليک کړه. د ډيورنډ لوظنامه اصل کښې د ګندامک د لوظنامې نه هم بدتره وخته او افغانستان ئې په مينځ دوه کړو.

غازي امان الله خان د افغانستان د استقلال د پاره ولس کښې ډېره بيداري راپېده کړه ولې هغۀ هم د پنډۍ لوظنامه لاس ليک کړه چې تروسه پورې ئې مورخين په دے عبارت چې سابقه لوظنامې منسوخه شوے دي، اتفاق نۀ لري.

افغانان د خپل تارېخ سره بلد دي او د شوري پوځونو د راتلو نه پس په افغانستان کښې د جهاد او ورستو د طالبانو د حکومت د غلطو نه ئې سبق زده کړې دې. نن په يويشتمه پيړۍ کښې افغانستان سره د ډيرو ستونځو يو مستحکم جمهوريت او د نړۍ ضرورت دې. د افغانستان لويه جرګه به داځل ډيره ښۀ فيصله کوي او اميد دے چې لويه جرګه به نړۍ ته خپلې هغه وعدے رايادوي او د افغانستان په سپورټ به ئې مجبوروي کومې چې نړۍ وخت په وخت افغانستان سره کړې دي. د بون کانفرنس نه واخله د شکاګو سمټ پورې هغه ټولې وعدے افغانانو ته يادې دي.

په راروان وخت د حامد کرزي صېب د شخصېت يو ډير لوئے امتحان دے. په اپريل کښې صدارتي ټول ټاکنې کېدونکې دي او کۀ دا ټول ټاکنې په پرامنه طريقې سره سر ته ورسېدے نو د افغانستان د تاريخ يو ځلانده باب به شورو شي.

کال 2014 د افغانستان د پاره ډير مهم دے. په دے کال کښې صدارتي اليکشن، د تاټو ځواکونه واپس تګ او د يو خپلواکه افغانستان د 13 کالو د خړپوسو نه پس په خپلو پښو اودريدل دي او پرمختګ کول دي. الله دے زمونږ ګران افغانستان او د پښتنو د کور حفاظت وکړي. الله دے د پاکستان ولس له هم دا وس ورکړي چې په خپل ملک کښې امن او استحکام راولې.

Friday, November 22, 2013

US-Afghan Peace Deal


A US-Afghan peace deal will definitely contribute towards stability in Afghanistan. However, I liked the statesmanship of Karzai. If we closely listen to Karzai's speech to the Loya Jirga we notice the following things.

1.He referred to Shangai Cooperation Organization which means Karzai is keeping the options open for Afghanistan. 2. He referred to international support and commitment such as the one pledged to him in the Chicago summit. 3. He talked about Afghanistan sovereignty and Istiqlal. 4. He forcefully argued about interference in Afghanistan from its neighbors. 5. He hinted towards peaceful elections.

I think the agreement should be studied from three broader angles.

1. Afghans must evaluate the Agreement in line with all such previous agreements in the past. The infamous Gandamak Treaty of 1979, the infamous agreement of Durand Line, Rawalpindi Treaty of 1919 and Afghan War of 1979 must be carefully evaluated. What I understand from the history of Afghanistan is that Afghans are free people and they never like to be dictated. Afghans have mostly suffered due to their leaders. Afghans' freedom was never recognized by the powers. Afghans have been engaged in internal fights. And Afghans' neighbors have always interfered in their affairs. So an Afghan perspective must clearly understand its strength and weakness. I think as compared to the past Afghanistan is a different country today. Unlike the past when the kings mostly decided the course of history or certain factions within the state reigned, today's Afghanistan is a democratic entity having a parliament and working state institutions. Afghanistan has enmity with none and the world recognizes Afghanistan as a sovereign country. The Agreement (in principle) will ensure stability of Afghanistan and continuation of democracy and state building which will ultimately help in shrinking spaces for anti-Afghan forces.

2. The US perspective: We must understand where does the US stand today? This is no colonial era. This is no Cold War time. The world today is a changed world. The US is simply fighting a legitimate war (with UN support). But war today does not mean subduing the enemy. War today is evaluated in terms of peace building and rehabilitation of the people by addressing human security issues. In principle the war in Afghanistan was ended back in 2002 but peace is still a far far cry The US has a commitment in Afghanistan to prove to the world (a world of free trade) that she is capable of bringing peace. This is exactly the US position today. The US will be staying in Afghanistan not for some strategic gains but for the shared interest of the world and free enterprises. Without this moral obligation the US will not be able to sustain its economy, cultural and technological dominance or leadership and security of its own people.

3. Pakistan: Pakistan is in deep troubles. The strategic assets are proving as strategic liability. Pakistan must realize that religious extremists and militants have no country. They think beyond geographical boundaries. If the militants feel they are not able to regain control of Afghanistan they will definitely try to take control of Pakistan. This is simple logic. However, Pakistan as a state is almost paralyzed before the militants. This paralysis has deeply affected state institutions including the sole stable institution of the Pakistan Army. However, army cannot play its traditional role which it supposed to play in the past. A helpless and paranoid army procrastinated during Musharaf's time (a Golden Opportunity for the army to prove as saviors of the people) and thus the militants were able to influence democracy. Now the future of Pakistan is in the hand of PML N and PTI. Both lack the vision, experience and commitment to bring the country out of the quagmire.

Conclusion: In principle a US-Afghan peace agreement under UN supervision shall ensure the stability of Afghanistan and help it grow as a sovereign state. The US must understand that UN supervision must continue as Afghans are none but equals among the comity of nations. A bilateral agreement will definitely end this war and bring peace in the long run but a continuation of international commitment will do the miracle earlier.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Ideological diversions

Power operates through media in very ingenious ways. The media may present a conflict between two minority groups. It further inflates the conflict and thus diverts attention from exploiters, usurpers and the corrupt.

Recently I wrote a blog about my perceptions on the education system of Pakistan and the way rot- learning and poor teaching-learning process of science is creating careerists who are failing to run the institutions. A friend recommended me to send the blog to Express Tribune. I did the same but surprisingly I was told that the blog did not fit into the policy lines of the paper. May be the concerned person had not read the article or may be this was exactly their policy. In any case, I have observed that the paper encourages an ideological propaganda of the seculars, liberals or leftists. There’s little room for objective analysis of issues.

In Malala’s case I have been engaged with the liberals in a variety of talks. I have been telling them that making an ideological war of Malala is an over-exaggeration of her mission and that if we restrict ourselves to her mission of education for all girls it would be more pragmatic. However, the temptation of making Malala as symbol of resistance was so great for them and they were so much obsessed with this thinking that I had to remain silent. Such portrayal of Malala not only led to further polarization but also diverted many from her original mission of “education for all girls.”

A similar ideological conflict can be witnessed between the PTI and ANP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Sanity demands that both the parties must work in close collaboration in such a way that the former learns from the experiences of the later and the later cooperates with the former on the pretext of bringing stability to a terrorism-affected province. When I advocate such a mutual and democratic cooperation on social media I am not encouraged.  For both the government and the opposition an ideological conflict is more fruitful as genuine grievances of the people are set aside and the parties’ interests are in the news.

There are also many ideologues who misinterpret relationship between the power and the required resistance. For example, one of my communist friends on facebook did not like Malala because she had not spoken against imperialism in her UN speech. Such an ideological resistance model is counter-productive and it does not empathize with the power-holders. Without empathizing with the power-holders we cannot know what the power-holders perceive. In other words ideological abstraction of the resisting groups is merely a diversion and it helps more those in power than those who are supposed to resist.

Capitalism as criticized by the communists or which is termed as “rentier and investor” by its proponents is the prevailing economic system.  Democracies in this system hugely rely on money. Academia is sponsored by industries and in turn industries make more profits from academic research. The media itself is mostly commercial. Power operates through media in very ingenious ways. The media may present a conflict between two minority groups. It further inflates the conflict and thus diverts attention from exploiters, usurpers and the corrupt.


It is not surprising that there is enough room for the distortion of facts and propaganda of non-issues. I don’t suggest a communist alternative. I am describing what the system is all about.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Identity Crisis and Pakhtun Nationalism


The term “identity crisis” was first coined by Erik Homburger Erikson (15 June 1902 – 12 May 1994) was a German-born American developmental psychologists. He used the term for “ego identity during adolescence.”  According to him if an individual fails to form a positive self-image during resolving a number of crisis in adolescence—our ideas of ourselves and what other think of us—the person will be having less confidence to confront problems during adulthood.

The term has wider usages and it is also used in history and politics. Historian K.K. Aziz has used this term for the Muslims of British India who after losing the grandeur of the recent past (Mughal Empire) felt isolated and could not reassert themselves as Indians.

Are Pakhtuns suffering from identity crisis? Dr. Fazal Rahim Marwat has rightly said that due to political domination, Anglo-Afghan Wars and the subsequent treaties Pakhtuns were divided and a crisis of identity was imposed. What was this crisis of identity?

I think Identity Crisis of a nation implies that a nation has a negative self-image. In the case of Pakhtuns we know the reasons that excessive stereotyping on the part of our traditional enemies and the wars on our land have been forcing us to adapt ourselves to this negative self-image. Thus identity crisis may be an imposed negative self-image which is restricting the ways of peace and progress in Pakhtunkhwa.


One of the major symptoms of this negative-self image is lack of empathy for fellow Pakhtuns. There was a time when Pakhtuns did not feel comfortable among outsiders. Even outside Pakhtunkhwa and Afghanistan Pakhtuns would used to live with other Pakhtuns. Now this empathy among Pakhtuns is replaced with feeling of shame, guilt, mutual distrust and self-destructive attitudes. These are some of the reasons due to which Pakhtun intelligence is largely nationalist or ethnocentric i.e. building a positive self-image and pushing people towards progress and prosperity.  

Monday, October 7, 2013

Dialogue ends before it starts


After passing of the joint resolution by the All Parties Conference (APC) on September 9, 2013 in favour of a dialogue process with the militants, three big terrorists’ incidents have taken place in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Killing of 3 senior officers of the Pakistan Army including a Major General on September 15, two suicide attacks on All Saints’ Memorial Church on September 22 and Qessa Khwani Bazar’s explosion on September 29.

Meanwhile, PM Nawaz Sharif, while addressing to the 68th session of the General Assembly at UN headquarters on September 27 urged upon the US to stop drone strikes. Another stronger statement was issued by PTI’s Chief Imran Khan later on October 4 wherein he demanded the government to take the issue of drone strikes to UN Security Council.

Soon after PM’s speech in the UN four suspected militants were killed in drone strikes in North Waziristan. Taliban’s spokesman Shahidullah Shahid termed these attacks as violation of ceasefire because according to him drones attacks were carried out with the tacit support of the Pakistani government. It should be reminded that right now no military operation in any part of Pakistan is being conducted against the militants.

The political leadership in Pakistan is trying its best to create an environment for dialogues but the Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is more pragmatic in its approach. The Taliban know that a dialogue process with the Pakistan government would be a futile exercise as according to them the US presence in Afghanistan would continue to be a major hurdle in their aims and objectives and that the US would continue striking them through drones. Thus they continue their destruction against the Pakistani state and its people.

The US on the other hand has a very clear policy about drone strikes. It favours a significant decrease in drone strikes but it has very categorically expressed its continuation till the end of 2014 and may be beyond. The drones are so far very successful from US point of view in rooting out key Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants.

The US has mostly ignored the peace deals with the militants by the Pakistan Army but it had pressurized the provincial government of ANP not to have any peace deal with the militants in Swat. It may be that the US does not want a political recognition of the Taliban by Pakistan. It may also be the case that the US has no such authority to initiate and accept a dialogue process without the prior consent of the democratic government in Afghanistan. The collapse of recent peace talks of the US and Afghan Taliban suggests that Afghan government would never allow the US to give recognition to Taliban without forcing them to accept the constitution of Afghanistan. Thus without having an intra-Afghan dialogue process, an intra-Pakistan dialogue process is unimaginable and the TTP would never agree with a dialogue process until Pakistani government forces the US to stop drone strikes.

Pakistan is a poor economy and its political leadership is too weak to have full control on state institutions. Therefore, it is less likely that Pakistan would be able to persuade the international community to end drone strikes. Even if US agrees on ending drone strikes it would ask for our commitment to force Taliban to accept the constitution of Afghanistan. The later is just a remote possibility.

Thus the APC’s recommendations would be having little impacts on changing the status quo. However, procrastination on the part of Pakistan in either initiating a dialogue process or a full-scale military operation may likely to give the militants an upper-hand in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. We may likely to see the writ of the state further weakened on the peripheries and growing insecurity and economic melt-down in the center.


Saturday, October 5, 2013

Instability and Polarization

While in Pakistan one may find that in almost every mosque during Friday Prayers’ sermon there is a mention of Jehad. On a busy road in Islamabad you will see the road is closed by some Lashkars (militant group) demonstrating some so-called religious rights. Outside the press club building one may see a group of bearded people having some pro-Syria banners attempting media attraction. There are religious seminaries with poor students spread in the nook and corner of the countries. A university chancellor reveals the plot of 9/11 and the New World Order and from the same university hostel militants associated with Al-Qaeda are arrested. 

There is the so-called notorious land called FATA (notorious due to militants’ control and the marginalization of the locals). There is Waziristan where TTP Commander lives and TTP spokesman issues press releases and videos about Taliban. On certain occasion the so-called Afghan Taliban show their presence when some of them are transported to Doha for peace talks with the US. 

The All Parties Conference recommended peace talks with the militants. Imran Khan suggested an office for them. Fazlullah group released video of the killing of an army Major General. Peshawar bleeds. But… but...

1. We are not sure of who these terrorists are and what are their aims and objectives.
2. The discourse of right ends in conspiracy theories and main-stream population sympathetic to the right attribute these terrorists’ activities to outside agents such as infidel West, India and Israel. 
3. The discourse of left ends in an oversimplified argument that these terrorists are religious fundamentalist who want to occupy both Afghanistan and Pakistan and hence want to establish a Global Islamic Khilaft.
4. This polarization is only destabilizing the state and society and is posing further risks to regional and global peace.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

My Last Wish


Perhaps to wish is to foresee
It’s not that it’s surely happened
Pashtun nation sets itself free
But resilience is born and ripened

The heroes stumbled but rose again
Tired of long battles, still fighting
Winning freedom and false hope to entertain
The muffled drums we ever be striking

T’s to tell you how just I feel
The last wish from each heart to steal

Pashtun Nationalist Movement

Historically, Pashtun Nationalist Movement has seen many upheavals. Historians like Syed Waqar Ali Shah indentifies the historical phases of this movement such as Pir Rokhan Tahreek, Khushal Khan Baba and Baacha Khan. Khan Abul Samad Khan Achakzai can also be considered as part of Baacha Khan Khudai Khidmatgar Tahreek though later on he parted his way and started his own party in the Southern Pakhtunkhwa. 

Roughly speaking the Pashtun Nationalists Movement is the political philosophy based on a shared history, language, land, ethnicity (predominantly Pashtuns are part of this movement) and culture. However, the philosophy never clearly articulated how Pashtuns on both side of the Durand Line could unite. In its heydays the movement shared common platform with the communists, however, after the fall of Soviet Union and the subsequent Civil War and Talibanization in Afghanistan the movement lost its popular support.

It was 9/11 which reinvigorated the movement and Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line began to articulate their genuine grievances vis-à-vis the War against Terror. A dominant portions of Pashtuns aspirations remained peace and rebuilding process in Afghanistan and the movement sharply paced itself against Talibanization and terrorism. In Pakistan two strands of this movement i.e. Awami National Party and Pakhtunkhwa Mili Awai Party were able to win elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pashtuns areas of Baluchistan respectively. Thus Pashtuns nationalists emerged as dominant stakeholders in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

1. How do we see the recent growth of this movement with its different strands: Afghanistan, ANP and PMAP?

2. What future prospects do we see for this movement such as ideological points, policy matters and strategic interventions?

3. How does the present leadership relevant for the future of this movement?

2014: The Year of hope or despair

All depends on the U.S–Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement and the possible stay of some of the US forces in Afghanistan. Close to this partnership will be India’s future involvement in Afghanistan.

On the other hand there is wait and see policy in Pakistan. As usual the All Parties Conference and its recommendations have provided an opportunity to Pakistan to buy some time in the name of dialogue with the militants and thus helping it to wait til a final decision about withdrawal of NATO forces and draw-down of US troops.

Meanwhile the militants have been successful to make a very visible presence on the scene and the increased attacks on military and civilians indicate they are taking advantage of the situation.

What may likely to be the worst case scenario?

Procrastination on the part of Pakistan in either initiating a dialogue process or a full-scale military operation may likely to give the militants an upper-hand in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. We may likely to see the writ of the state further weakened on the peripheries and growing insecurity and economic melt-down in the center. To be more specific Pakistan is already passing through this phase and it won’t make any difference if there is increase in militants’ presence and further security threats. However, such scenario would greatly undermine NATO’s ability to withdraw safely which would mean not an end to this war but the beginning of another turbulent phase in the history of Af-Pak region and specifically FATA. In very extreme condition the US/ NATO will have no other option but to look for alternative withdrawal route such as from Iran.

Do we have a visible win-win situation to the perceived end-game in Afghanistan? Will the so-called stakeholders (even if we exclude Taliban for the time-being) have the potential to reach such an agreement? Isn't our present strategy of striving for a strong bargaining position in Afghanistan’s so-called end-game at the expense of destabilizing our own state and society a gamble? 

Thursday, September 26, 2013

The Bell (in School)







The sparkling, splashing chandeliers
These eyes are all without any fears
They go to schools, they learn the books
Each one is Malala—from the looks
The girls there once carried the water
With their jingling wrists as they would made laughter
Like kids they crazed in woods down the hills
And the valley was enchanted with their spells
Then came the beasts and burnt the woods
Large in number clad in hoods
They closed the schools, they forced the girls
To wear black robes and hide their curls
The guns they carried killed the song
The song of peace which had history so long
Among the shepherded, beyond the hills
The plains of Peshawar which knew the skills
And one day stealthily she made her way
To her deserted school in the light of the day
She entered there and rang the bell
Oblivious was she, beasts were there to kill
They fired the guns though she was stopped
But the bell rang louder it never dropped
Her enemies died but she survived
Her valor kindled and millions revived

(Muhammad Arif Tangi)

Friday, September 20, 2013

Af-Pak-US Triangle and 2014 Scenario

The post 2014 scenario in Afghanistan is broadly portrayed as a nightmare. While U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in his recent visit to Pakistan has already hinted a “draw-down”, there are widespread apprehensions among the analysts of repetition of the early 1990’s civil war with ethnic, religious, sectarian and proxy war contenders for the thrown of Kabul. The picture is further portrayed fizzy as U.S–Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement is yet to evolve into a comprehensive bilateral agreement about the possible presence of US troops in Afghanistan after 2014.
Whatever the situation might be one thing is sure that the three countries US, Afghanistan and Pakistan are either the direct beneficiaries of any peace-building process or they will be bearing the brunt of a possible long-term continuation of the conflict and terrorism. In the last 10 years or so we have been witnessing distrust on either side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan-United States (Af-Pak-US) triangle and it is important to learn lessons from the past before embarking on any post-2014 journey for the region.
Significant in this regard is US model of the Af-Pak. Since the term was first used by Richard Holbrooke, the Obama administration’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, the region was conceived as a “single theatre of operation” to “disrupt, dismantle and prevent” Al-Qaeda. But the term had other implications too. It was supposed to serve as a democratic model to slowly and gradually bring democratic forces in the two countries together through people-to-people contact, businesses and to some extent military partnership. It was probably envisioned that democracies in the two neighboring countries will open up avenues for dialogue, mediation and reconciliation and thus reducing the chances for not-state actors to have sanctuaries in either of the countries. However, lacking the vision both Karzai and Zardari administrations fell prey to their internal political compulsions and cooperation between the two countries could not evolve. Consequently both the countries blame each other of sponsoring terrorism and interference and due to which many areas of FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are now virtually under the control of the Taliban.
The Af-Pak model was conceived in the broader regional and international interests of the super power i.e. the US. However, like all plans challenges surface when it comes to implementation. The plan largely depended on the holistic processes that have been shaped by diverse factors within the triangle as well as with the inclusion and exclusion of other players regionally and internationally. One such intrusion in the triangle is the Indian influence in Afghanistan and its support and training for the Afghan National Security Forces.  This will remain the bone of contention between Afghanistan and Pakistan until the tension between India and Pakistan is normalized to the extent that it may not disturb the trust between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Otherwise the security apparatus in Pakistan will continue its reluctance to go after terrorists’ sanctuaries on the pretext that growing Indian influence in Afghanistan will greatly undermine Pakistan’s own security concerns not only on the eastern border but also on the western side and beyond the Durand Line.
The current apprehensions are largely founded on the impression that Afghanistan is largely dependent on international security assistance and if such assistance is withdrawn, non-state actors would not only be able to destabilize the country but will also ignite ethnic, religious and proxy conflicts. It is, therefore, very important to scientifically calculate the strength and weakness of the Afghan state, its economy, its security apparatus and the magnitude of threats it is supposed to face in case of a possible withdrawal of international assistance. Significant in this regards is Afghan Presidential election to be held in April 2014. We had been witnessing in the previous elections that electorate was manipulated and massive rigging and corruptions scandals were reported. Afghans want peace and prosperity and free, fair and transparent elections would be the key to bring creative and constructive leadership to the front who would be able to deliver in times of extreme crisis. 
While we may yet to decide between a “withdrawal” and a “draw-down” by the US, one thing is imminent that the NATO forces are supposed to withdraw and they will need the same route through which they have been provided all the supply. In the recent past NATO supply has been continually halted by terrorists’ attacks and by Pakistan’s own security concerns. Moreover, the right-wing political parties in Pakistan are specifically mindful of this supply line and some of them are now ruling Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These supply lines pass through FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Pashtun areas of Baluchistan. In these areas Taliban operatives have sanctuaries, networks and parallel governments. These areas are politically marginalized and have been partially devastated by terrorism, military operations, internal displacement and natural disasters. In the past these areas have been largely neglected and were not made stakeholders in the decision-making process. It is, therefore, pertinent to mention that in the wake of NATO‘s withdrawal we may likely to see challenges of unprecedented magnitude which may totally or substantively jeopardize peace in the region.
The possibility for sustainable peace exists within the Afghan-Pakistan-US (Af-Pak-US) triangle and trust deficit on each side of this triangle has devastating implications not only for the three countries but also for the entire region. It is quite obvious that an Afghan, an American and a Pakistani are suffering from lack of peace or conversely they will benefit from peace. The choice is simple.

If you ask me about the problems of education in Pakistan


In our society education is mostly taken for granted and parents and teachers have some vague understanding of it. The understanding is vague in the sense that the society at large has not fully internalized the meaning of education and due to dogmas and superstitions the essence of education is somehow misunderstood.

The bottom line is that formal education and schooling is only superficially accepted as something which will ensure better social status or some refined tastes and this kind of education is never considered equal to religious education to which parents obsessively adhere to. This focus on religious education greatly undermines the formal education process which is considered inferior and which only relates to success in this world.

During my childhood I used to go to mosque early in the morning and later in the evening for religious education such as learning Arabic script of Quran and basics of Islam.  In between these two sessions there was a big interval for formal school timing which also began with the recitation of Quran and some compulsory subjects like Islamic studies. Most of this religious education remained repetitive til my 10th grade and even beyond my college days. Adding five times prayers a day with two time’s formal religious education in mosques and at least two more hours of religious education at school with repetitive subjects and religious themes remained my routine til 16 years of age.

There was no provision for sports in my school and the morning and evening time was already occupied. So it was natural that during the school time we were mostly diverted from our studies and would try to find as much time for sports as was possible.  The formal learning of other subjects such as mathematics, language and science was mostly rot-learning and we never understood what these subjects were all about as we would only cram them for passing exams. This cramming and rot-learning continued til my Masters studies and like all others I did Masters. I faced no hurdle in my formal education as the same thing was practiced by everybody and even our teachers. I got a very good job and I even qualified for a foreign scholarship.

Most of the skills I learnt after my formal education due to the demand of my job and for earning livelihood. I am still learning even in my thirties and as compared to others, this realization was a bit earlier due to my interaction with some good friends, reading books and newspaper, watching movies and using internet. I somehow changed and began to understand things more scientifically but when I look at my friends and colleagues they are the same. For them lack of language and skills is a kind of complex which they cannot cure. In fact, it would be a herculean task to motivate them to get rid of their comfort zones and start learning.  

Looking today at our education system, I can see no change save some English medium schools where students are more fluent in English and shaper at learning by rot. Rot-learning and fluency in English is a guarantee for getting good marks, acceptance to good institutions and better prospects for jobs. If I am asked to identify problems in the education sector I would say:
1.       For a majority Muslim Pakistani society education has no other meaning but religious education.
2.       Most of the student’s time is consumed by religious education which is often repetitive.


3.       The teachers, parents and educational administrators are not fully aware of the importance of formal education.

4.       Most of the teaching is rot-learning and hence no real understanding of mathematics, science and other important subjects.

5.       The same students compete for jobs and those with relatively better grades and, in few cases, better understanding get jobs.

6.       Due to lack of understanding we are not producers but consumers.

7.       Our institutions lack workers with the desired skills to run both public and private institutions.

8.       Most of our problems are increasing and there are no signs of progress and development.

Monday, September 9, 2013

On Political Rights

Politics, power and empowerment may be considered synonymous. Without political autonomy, power-share and empowerment people may likely to become escapists, romanticists, idealists and dreamers. That is why religion and isms attract people in states where power is concentrated in a few or where massive repression, marginalization or alienation of people can be seen.

The repressive state itself may be responsible for creating negative perceptions against the state or those who rule over it. To add insult to injury repressive states most often engage in perpetuating patriotism through fears, fallacies and vested interests. 

Struggle against the repressive states is mostly represented by catchwords like revolution, freedom and separation. In democracies a more pragmatic approach towards constitutional reforms is being adopted. People also use street power to build pressure against democratic regimes that tend to be repressive. However, such struggle may not necessarily end in greater rights for the oppressed and the marginalized and in some cases the society at large is destabilized. 

How could one explain who is right and who is wrong in countries like Egypt and Syria for example? Is violence for getting political rights or conversely for suppressing political dissidents by states is justified? What if states do not listen to the perceptions of the people for which the states themselves are responsible? 

Or should we be looking for other possibilities? Shouldn't we think that the state itself is an artificial entity which can either ensure you greater freedom through subjugating other states or if you are already living in a client state you either choose to struggle for the freedom of the state or become part of the power-game? Isn't the moral choice here so elusive? 

In any case, a more rational and pragmatic approach towards political rights may be better. Relying on people’s negative perceptions for the state may not be very fruitful as perceptions may change through fears, fallacies or vested interest. It is high time we liberate our political thinking from futile escapism, narcissist romanticism and daydreaming. If politics is a science, let’s play it scientifically with the utmost art of training ourselves in its intricacies.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

The Game of Single Ministry


A friend suggested Game Theory in Pakhtun Hujra. I am still studying the theory but the topic has nothing to do with Game Theory and its application in politics and governance. I coined this title because it seemed interesting to me.

PTI secured a clear mandate in the last elections and as per its election manifesto its government was supposed to show some visible changes in the governance structure of the province. However, 90 days are about to complete and we are yet to see any visible direction for improving governance of the province.

Somewhere in this Hujra I had suggested that the people did not expect a “change” overnight. What the people will be interested in is to see what direction the PTI government takes after its exaggerated elections slogans. We know there are bureaucratic hurdles; there is problem of capacity and technical and professional expertise at all levels and there are security risks in a province torn apart by terrorism.

I would suggest to the Honorable Chairman of PTI Mr. Imran Khan to design the Game of Single Ministry in the province for developing an indigenous and pro-people model of governance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The idea is to take one ministry as a model. Start a pilot project for reforming the administrative and bureaucratic mess and ensuring a transparent and accountable system of providing less costly and quality health services to the people.

I would further suggest that the Health Department may be focused keeping in view the fact that a healthy body has a healthy mind. The government should devise a plan to bring drastic changes to the whole health department. These may include appointment of very efficient people on key posts, raising the pay structure of the doctors and support staff, introducing medical ethics and relevant laws for implementation, regulating the sale of drugs, ensuring the quality of hospitals, supporting health units as per global standards and restructuring emergency health services in each district. Special health cards for the poor, health insurance for the government and other employees and payment based health services for the rich may also be introduced. 

Rather than focusing on all ministries, the government may focus on this single ministry. The project document may be designed for one year by expert project designers who are well-versed in the health related problems of the areas. Media and NGOs should be taken on board. A multi-tiered monitoring and evaluating system shall also be designed by ensuring participatory management and decision making process. A special committee of the Provincial Assembly shall directly oversee the performance of health ministry. Modern technology and E-governance tool should be used for saving time and resources. 

It is hypothesized that the Game of Single Ministry if honestly implemented will have several outcomes. Immediately, it will provide the much needed relief to the people. It will help developing a model of governance to be replicated in other ministries. In fact, other ministries will automatically try to redress themselves. The pilot project will win the trust of the people and people will start participating in the good initiatives of the government. It will also invite healthy criticism from the opposition and may possibly help in a pro-people political competition in the province. 

by Muhammad Arif

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

The Problem of Secularism


The problem of secularism may firstly be considered as a matter of historical progression and can be equated with terms like evolution and civilization from thematic perspectives. Secondly, we need to understand secularism as a matter of degree not of kind. Finally, for practical reasons in transitional societies like ours, secularism as a way of life or secularism as political slogan may be objectively debated.

The Western civilization and life style at presents is leading all cultures and societies of the world. This is because of the fact that the West has been able to internalize the meanings of secular values after a thousand years of social and political experimentation and as a result of the intellectual and scientific developments that have been influencing all spheres of life ranging from individual freedoms to forming institutions like UNO for avoiding large scale destruction of human beings in wars. The concepts of freedom, human rights, and constitutionalism and liberal democracies are ethical choices which have been passing the test of time, improving and evolving along with capitalism; and  through more internal urges and even through a very visible desire to export the same to other parts of the world West is being able to have cultural influence on the world. It is no wonder that thousands of years of civilizations like China, India and Japan are fast adopting Western ways of life and many more countries and cultures of the world have been following despite all the odds of changing societies or polities. Thus secularism and human development have inherent relationship and it can be summed up as Capitalism plus social democracy.

This brings us to the second point of understanding secularism as a matter of degree and not of kind. Countries having higher living standards are relatively secular than countries having a low living standards or with poverty. Living standard is not solely measured in terms of economic development alone but better living standards also include personal freedoms and choices which are still denied in most wealthy Arab countries for example. It may be noted that oligarchies in Arab countries and especially Saudi Arabia have been using Islam as an easy way to sustain their power and the rulers themselves live luxurious lives and have assets and inspirations in Western countries. In China the communist party is only representing a semblance of socialism which has only been restricting several freedoms such as the freedom of religion and the capitalist’s economy is rapidly pushing the society towards Western ideals. In Pakistan a highly secular military and political lot have been supporting Islam due to their inefficiency to sustain a country through other modern means. Some article from the Indian constitution, reference to the British Queen holding the tile of the “Head of the Church of England or referring to US presidential oath are some other examples of the degree of secularism in developed or developing societies. We are yet to see to what extent a campaign for Burqa may be justified by equating it with a campaign for nudity. This is something the Western societies themselves to decide.


Finally, the core issue of secularism in our society or societies like ours is to be debated. Both secularism as a way of Western life-style and as political expediency to transform lives and ensure human well-being will take time as we are yet to join the pace of developing economies where capitalism and social democracy have been taking roots. We are still deeply entangled in the Cold-war politics of ideological confrontation and have not been able to enter the new global economic order of protecting corporation, attracting investments and promoting entrepreneurship. Such ideological confrontation has proved devastating in Egypt recently where state and society are at war and sections of society are siding with another for bringing more instability to their own societies.

When I say secularism as fundamentally a Western ideal, I do not deny the accumulated historical human wisdom of different cultures and even religions such as ancient Greek, Islam or Medina Charter. I am referring to the Western societies who championed the cause of secularism and no other society such as communism in Soviet Russia and China and Islamic society of Medina could provide a genuine parallel or alternative in the practical sense (a practical model and not some abstract ideal notions which are to be implemented).

Secularism has two main strands: Individualistic or societal and legal or statehood. On individual and societal level we may understand it as a matter of degree. Here we may refer to any society which derives inspiration from worldly and materialistic concerns as against superstitions, myths or anything called divine. Furthermore societies are evolving all the time and the divine and worldly are mostly mixed where human being are full of contradictions. However, such societies can be judged religious or secular (worldly here) from the degree of tolerance for diversity and creativity in any form. In our life I witnessed the steady decline of secular/ worldly values in our society due to more space religion (Islam of all hues but importantly Wahabi Islam) received for some very obvious reasons. Consequently, we may see more societal checks on individual privacy and so-called perversions, artistic expressions such music and check on women etc.

The problem of statehood with secular legislation is on the one hand intertwined with individualistic or societal secular/worldly choices, trends and passions while on the other hand statehood itself is the product of the evolution process when disorganized tribal structures were gradually transformed into more complex cultures and way of life and power found a central position for keeping some sort of taken-for-granted notions of stability or security. History shows us that superstition, mythology and religion provided the main framework for intellectual exercise to address insecurities of diseases, disasters and wars etc. Political authority in such cases was mostly justified on the ground of divinity or religion.  


States evolved differently in different parts of the world and many states can be put in different categories from evolutionary perspective.  However, Western model of state survived and passed the test of time not only against the oligarchies, theocracy and military autocracy but also against communism. This state structure with capitalism and democracy is in vogue which in ideal case is supposed to ensure Human Rights and economic well-being of the people. States might have their own internal dynamics like religious, social and culture ones and such dynamics will have their positive and negative influences in democracies but in the end the contradictions would possibly be replaced with more pro-people and worldly (secular) contractions of individuals competing for excellence and the state much more sensitive towards the marginalized. 

Saturday, August 31, 2013

Elections 2013: Defeat of ANP and Policy Options

The defeat of ANP in the May 2003 Election is interpreted differently by different people. According to the  party‘s  official stance,  ANP was defeated due to the  targeting of the party cadre in the period  leading up to the  polls and the resultant inability of the party  to conduct an election campaign and    connect with its voters. This is the most plausible argument   as ANP was attacked more than 31 times during the period and 61 party workers were killed as  a result of these attacks. Prior to these attacks TTP‘s  spokesman Ihsanullah Ihsan had  threatened the people not to vote for ANP, PPP and MQM, the ruling coalition  that won the  February 2008  Elections. These parties are generally perceived to be secular in nature and anti-Taliban. The coalition government in Islamabad in general and the ANP led government in the province had directly confronted the TTP which also included a civilian-backed military operation in Swat that resulted in the ouster of the Fazlullah led Tehrik-e-Taliban Swat from the Malakand division.

Conversely, the ideological workers in ANP  also  attribute its failure to internal reasons. Khan Baba who has been running an pro-ANP E-Hujra for the last 10 years and who has  been very  active on  social media  recently said that ANP‘s failure was the failure of its leadership. According to him Asfandiyar Wali Khan should not have shifted to Islamabad after a suicide attack on him in his Hujra in October 2008. This led to a leadership vacuum and the party  was left to remain  disconnected from the masses in the absence of its leadership. It should be remembered that ANP enjoys its core membership owing to the legacy of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan alias Bacha Khan and Khan Abdul Wali Khan, the grandfather and father of Asfandiyar Wali Khan respectively. In the absence of Asfandiyar Wali Khan, the  center of power within the party shifted to Mardan, the home constituency of former Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa  Amir  haider Khan Hoti and nephew of Asfandiyar Wali Khan. In the capital city Peshawar,  power remained with  the Bilour  Brothers,  who were against the award ofChief Minister‘s slot to Amir  haider Khan Hoti. One of the Bilour Brothers,  Bashir Ahmad Bilour was later  martyred in a suicide blast  while campaigning for the general election. After Asfandiyar Wali Khan shifted to Islamabad, in his home constituency Charsadda (Hashtnaghar in Pashto), two powerful people ran the affairs of the party: the inexperienced Aimal Wali Khan, the son of Asfandiyar Wali Khan and Mr. Masoom Shah Badshah. While Aimal Wali Khan could not fill up the vacuum created by the absence of his father due to security reasons and due to his inexperience, Mr. Masoom Shah enjoyed very high ranking among the party workers in Charsadda.

Masoom Shah was a competent politician  and he consolidated his position in the party when he left Af tab Ahmad Khan Sherpao and joined ANP. In 2008 Elections, he along with Afrasiab Khattak  were targeted  by the TTP leaving several dead and injured in Shabqadar, Charsadda.

Mr. Masoom Shah, commonly known as SMS, enjoyed a privileged position not only within Charsadda but almost in the entire government circle owing to his position as an advisor to the Chief Minister. Soon after his appointment, public image of  Masoom Shah took a nose dive  as both the party workers and the general public accused him of corruption. Neither Masoom Shah nor ANP leadership paid heed to anti-Masoom Shah hatred and by extinction a general perception of corruption spread which added to the wide spread  propaganda of Easy Load Baba—  a derogatory term used for the alleged corruption of Mr. Azam Hoti, the father of CM KPK Mr. Amir  Haider Khan Hoti. The elder Hoti was once released by the Government after his deal with the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) for his alleged corruption when he was Federal Minister for Communication.

It is difficult to tell when the party workers began to get  alienated or  at what stage  the party leadership got disconnected from the masses. Till the crisis of Swat and the subsequent military operation, ANP enjoyed not only the support of a large section of intelligentsia but also other political parties due to ANP‘s  bold stance against militancy. It might have been a slow and steady process, First Asfandiyar Wali Khan‘s shifting to Islamabad, second ANP‘s provincial president Afrasiab Khattak‘s  over-engagement in Islamabad in the preparation of 18th Amendment and thirdly due to the party‘s three disjointed groups Hotis, Bilours and Masoom Shah enjoying powers in  Mardan, Peshawar and Charsadda respectively. At a time when the province was faced with security issues due to terrorism, natural disasters like the flood in 2010 and other governance issues, ANP government and the party largely remained disjointed, less focused on its workers and away from the masses. The threats during May Elections 2013 only served as the last nail in the coffin of ANP‘s traditional people-centered politics.

Some perceptions are also propagated in the media and political circles that ANP lost the elections due to its poor performance during its five year rule in KPK. This argument does not appear to be based on reality.  It should be noted that ANP didn‘t lose election due to its bad performance. By all means ANP‘s provincial government‘s performance was relatively better as compared to its predecessor,  the Muttahida Mjalis e Amal (MMA) government or any other government in the Past. ANP‘s election slogan in 2008 was to bring peace to the province. Judging against this sole yardstick, ANP  performed very well. The government restored ordered to Swat, pushed back militants takeover of Peshawar and other parts of the province and sacrificed more than 800 party workers which included Bashir Bilour, Mian Rashid Hussain, MPA Alamzeb, Fazal e Ghani Lala and many others. The ANP changed the name of the province, passed the 18th Constitution Amendment, decentralizing powers to the provinces, increased the number of public-sector universities, increased the role of Civil Society, empowered artists,  artisans and craftsmen, created spaces for women in politics and other fields, supported the students and the needy and  took positive steps in  many other  areas. And finally to quote just one example ANP had the most vocal, energetic and popular Information Minister  Mian Iftikhar Hussain who stood  like  a  rock and  displayed unprecedented leadership skills.

So where did things go wrong for ANP? Should we remain complacent with the argument that ANP failure was mainly because of its disconnection from the masses?  For most people this argument would be sufficient. However, for a more informed reader, we need to dig deeper and look for how social changes shape perceptions and why it is important in politics to give more heed to perceptions than reality.

Perceptions are largely the expectation of the people about their well-being. ANP‘s good performance did not leave a permanent impression on the people. All the good work that ANP did was not owned by the people or perceived as such. The party workers could not link renaming of the province to the material well-being of the people. The universities established were not properly managed or merit was not ensured so people could not trust the good intentions. The sacrifices of  ANP‘s workers were largely ignored and the  people  rather  linked them  with ANP‘s support for the US policies in the region.

Democracy is all about people‘s perceptions. The new media such as electronic media and social media have been instrumental not only to shape these perceptions but also to appeal to the popular perceptions. Criticism on government policies is one of the pastimes of modern media. It is generally difficult for the democratic governments to live up to the media expectation and in transitional democracies like ours the government is always in the negative ranking. The popular watchwords on media mostly favour the opposition. It is no surprise that PPP or ANP lost the popularity because of these factors. However, ANP‘s  dismal  performance has many other contributing factors too.

It is understandable that voters in elections looked for alternatives. Traditionally ANP has no single party alternative but parties like Jamet Ulema e Islam(JUI), Qaumi Watan Party(QWP), Paksitan People‘s Party(PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz(PML-N)  and Jumat-e-Islami(JI)  won against ANP on constituency level or through political alliances. In the recent elections the voters were relatively more aware and they were focused more on issues. This was the most favourable time for ANP. However, the Paksitan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) factor swept ANP from the province. The ANP mostly undermined the PTI.


Under the impression of the media,  youth from PTI launched a very affective campaign by raising the expectation level of the voters and offered a more participatory and pro-people politics. ANP on the other hand remained complacent with its constituency and candidate-based politics. Asfandiyar Wali Khan used to say that elections are 70 percent candidate and 30 percent party. Social and political realities change and elections 2013 have proved this change.   The virtual elimination of secular and nationalist parties from the political power corridors does not auger well for the people of KPK at large and particularly for the Pashtuns. It‘s time that the leadership of ANP  carry out in-depth analysis of the factors leading to its complete ouster from the political landscape ( at least for now) and put in place corrective measures in time for the next elections right from now on. One aspect that would require special attention is to attract the youth through concerted and imaginative efforts at the grass roots level.

by Muammad Arif
(Published in SAHAR   JULY 2013)  

Friday, August 30, 2013

Scientific logic: The way I understand it



Personally I find no comprehensive meaning in phrase like “the Philosophy of Science”. I believe science as the best software for thinking we ever had or have. I also believe that philosophy has wasted much of our time through history and it has been responsible for retarding scientific growth. Otherwise most of the development in human history is made possible due to bold scientific hypothesis and theories.
[For reference study Edward De Bono]

Perhaps the early Greeks had this confusion more obvious. That is why we find a mix of religion, philosophy and science in their theories. Russell had this confusion when he presented a linear model of putting philosophy before religion and after science. Wittgenstein had made it narrower when he restricted philosophy to the study of language. And we still believe in the “philosophy of science” as something which may provide more grounds for advancements in science.

I think science as the best common sense tool and software for brain has been underestimated since ancient times. A possible explanation might be that we practice science and take for granted its usefulness. But when we think we make leaps of imagination and somehow desire to solve the mysteries (unknown, unseen). This might also be called a contradiction between what we know or should know and what we want to know.

Stephen Hawking suggests in his book the “Brief History of Time” that:
“Up to now, most scientists have been too occupied with the development of new theories that describe what the universe is to ask the question why. On the other hand, the people whose business it is to ask why, the philosophers, have not been able to keep up with the advance of scientific theories. In the eighteenth century, philosophers considered the whole of human knowledge, including science, to be their field and discussed questions such as: did the universe have a beginning? However, in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, science became too technical and mathematical for the philosophers, or anyone else except a few specialists. Philosophers reduced the scope of their inquiries so much that Wittgenstein, the most famous philosopher of this century, said, “The sole remaining task for philosophy is the analysis of language.” What a comedown from the great tradition of philosophy from Aristotle to Kant!” http://www.fisica.net/relatividade/stephen_hawking_a_brief_history_of_time.pdf

Closely related to this discussion is the problem of logic. The irony is that despite having scientific logic as software for the brain since time immemorial and despite the fact that we have been practicing it, philosophers have mostly remained obsessed with inventing logic. The Greek logicians discovered some rigid principles which held in high disdain scientific hypothesis and which later on facilitated Scholasticism and influenced (though negatively and to an extent retarded scientific thinking) the later course of scientific advancement. The logic evolved through time but it remained something which has been focusing on truth value (absoluteness of truth), Critical thinking of violently attacking the point of view of other and a coarse way of debating which mostly ends in a win-lose situation. Perhaps Edward De Bono is one of the best writers I ever read and understood who helped me getting rid of the slavery of logic.

To me science is something which simultaneously allows for bold conjectures and hypothesis and restricting us to scientific theories which have been developed on evidences. To understand Science we need to understand what a scientific theory is. Both Popper and Hawking have explained them in great length.

“…a theory is just a model of the universe, or a restricted part of it, and a set of rules that relate quantities in the model to observations that we make. It exists only in our minds and does not have any other reality (whatever that might mean). A theory is a good theory if it satisfies two requirements. It must accurately describe a large class of observations on the basis of a model that contains only a few arbitrary elements, and it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations. For example, Aristotle believed Empedocles’s theory that everything was made out of four elements, earth, air, fire, and water. This was simple enough, but did not make any definite predictions. On the other hand, Newton’s theory of gravity was based on an even simpler model, in which bodies attracted each other with a force that was proportional to a quantity called their mass and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them. Yet it predicts the motions of the sun, the moon, and the planets to a high degree of accuracy.
Any physical theory is always provisional, in the sense that it is only a hypothesis: you can never prove it. No matter how many times the results of experiments agree with some theory, you can never be sure that the next time the result will not contradict the theory. On the other hand, you can disprove a theory by finding even a single observation that disagrees with the predictions of the theory. As philosopher of science Karl Popper has emphasized, a good theory is characterized by the fact that it makes a number of predictions that could in principle be disproved or falsified by observation. Each time new experiments are observed to agree with the predictions the theory survives, and our confidence in it is increased; but if ever a new observation is found to disagree, we have to abandon or modify the theory.”  Stephen Hawking, A Brief History of Time

 It is, therefore, important to understand science as software for thinking and a way of doing and behaving. I have underlined some important points of scientific logic which may further be developed.

1.       There are no absolute truths in science;
2.       There are only theories;
3.       Theories are accepted as long as they work;
4.       A theory may potentially be disproved for when we cannot disprove it; it may tend to be considered an absolute truth;
5.       Theory may work in one place but it may not work in another place;
6.       While critical thinking is a more informed judgment upon an existing judgment, scientific thinking may allow suspension of judgment;
7.       There is easy flow of ideas in scientific thinking;
8.       Critical thinking may not allow room for emotions but scientific thinking owing to its descriptive nature may allow for emotions;
9.       Critical thinking may become rigid, hence, not allowing creativity and restructuring of ideas; a scientific thinking believes in hypothesis and provide enough room for creativity and possibilities.

Looking forward for your feedback,
Muhammad Arif

   


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