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Saturday, August 31, 2013

Elections 2013: Defeat of ANP and Policy Options

The defeat of ANP in the May 2003 Election is interpreted differently by different people. According to the  party‘s  official stance,  ANP was defeated due to the  targeting of the party cadre in the period  leading up to the  polls and the resultant inability of the party  to conduct an election campaign and    connect with its voters. This is the most plausible argument   as ANP was attacked more than 31 times during the period and 61 party workers were killed as  a result of these attacks. Prior to these attacks TTP‘s  spokesman Ihsanullah Ihsan had  threatened the people not to vote for ANP, PPP and MQM, the ruling coalition  that won the  February 2008  Elections. These parties are generally perceived to be secular in nature and anti-Taliban. The coalition government in Islamabad in general and the ANP led government in the province had directly confronted the TTP which also included a civilian-backed military operation in Swat that resulted in the ouster of the Fazlullah led Tehrik-e-Taliban Swat from the Malakand division.

Conversely, the ideological workers in ANP  also  attribute its failure to internal reasons. Khan Baba who has been running an pro-ANP E-Hujra for the last 10 years and who has  been very  active on  social media  recently said that ANP‘s failure was the failure of its leadership. According to him Asfandiyar Wali Khan should not have shifted to Islamabad after a suicide attack on him in his Hujra in October 2008. This led to a leadership vacuum and the party  was left to remain  disconnected from the masses in the absence of its leadership. It should be remembered that ANP enjoys its core membership owing to the legacy of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan alias Bacha Khan and Khan Abdul Wali Khan, the grandfather and father of Asfandiyar Wali Khan respectively. In the absence of Asfandiyar Wali Khan, the  center of power within the party shifted to Mardan, the home constituency of former Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa  Amir  haider Khan Hoti and nephew of Asfandiyar Wali Khan. In the capital city Peshawar,  power remained with  the Bilour  Brothers,  who were against the award ofChief Minister‘s slot to Amir  haider Khan Hoti. One of the Bilour Brothers,  Bashir Ahmad Bilour was later  martyred in a suicide blast  while campaigning for the general election. After Asfandiyar Wali Khan shifted to Islamabad, in his home constituency Charsadda (Hashtnaghar in Pashto), two powerful people ran the affairs of the party: the inexperienced Aimal Wali Khan, the son of Asfandiyar Wali Khan and Mr. Masoom Shah Badshah. While Aimal Wali Khan could not fill up the vacuum created by the absence of his father due to security reasons and due to his inexperience, Mr. Masoom Shah enjoyed very high ranking among the party workers in Charsadda.

Masoom Shah was a competent politician  and he consolidated his position in the party when he left Af tab Ahmad Khan Sherpao and joined ANP. In 2008 Elections, he along with Afrasiab Khattak  were targeted  by the TTP leaving several dead and injured in Shabqadar, Charsadda.

Mr. Masoom Shah, commonly known as SMS, enjoyed a privileged position not only within Charsadda but almost in the entire government circle owing to his position as an advisor to the Chief Minister. Soon after his appointment, public image of  Masoom Shah took a nose dive  as both the party workers and the general public accused him of corruption. Neither Masoom Shah nor ANP leadership paid heed to anti-Masoom Shah hatred and by extinction a general perception of corruption spread which added to the wide spread  propaganda of Easy Load Baba—  a derogatory term used for the alleged corruption of Mr. Azam Hoti, the father of CM KPK Mr. Amir  Haider Khan Hoti. The elder Hoti was once released by the Government after his deal with the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) for his alleged corruption when he was Federal Minister for Communication.

It is difficult to tell when the party workers began to get  alienated or  at what stage  the party leadership got disconnected from the masses. Till the crisis of Swat and the subsequent military operation, ANP enjoyed not only the support of a large section of intelligentsia but also other political parties due to ANP‘s  bold stance against militancy. It might have been a slow and steady process, First Asfandiyar Wali Khan‘s shifting to Islamabad, second ANP‘s provincial president Afrasiab Khattak‘s  over-engagement in Islamabad in the preparation of 18th Amendment and thirdly due to the party‘s three disjointed groups Hotis, Bilours and Masoom Shah enjoying powers in  Mardan, Peshawar and Charsadda respectively. At a time when the province was faced with security issues due to terrorism, natural disasters like the flood in 2010 and other governance issues, ANP government and the party largely remained disjointed, less focused on its workers and away from the masses. The threats during May Elections 2013 only served as the last nail in the coffin of ANP‘s traditional people-centered politics.

Some perceptions are also propagated in the media and political circles that ANP lost the elections due to its poor performance during its five year rule in KPK. This argument does not appear to be based on reality.  It should be noted that ANP didn‘t lose election due to its bad performance. By all means ANP‘s provincial government‘s performance was relatively better as compared to its predecessor,  the Muttahida Mjalis e Amal (MMA) government or any other government in the Past. ANP‘s election slogan in 2008 was to bring peace to the province. Judging against this sole yardstick, ANP  performed very well. The government restored ordered to Swat, pushed back militants takeover of Peshawar and other parts of the province and sacrificed more than 800 party workers which included Bashir Bilour, Mian Rashid Hussain, MPA Alamzeb, Fazal e Ghani Lala and many others. The ANP changed the name of the province, passed the 18th Constitution Amendment, decentralizing powers to the provinces, increased the number of public-sector universities, increased the role of Civil Society, empowered artists,  artisans and craftsmen, created spaces for women in politics and other fields, supported the students and the needy and  took positive steps in  many other  areas. And finally to quote just one example ANP had the most vocal, energetic and popular Information Minister  Mian Iftikhar Hussain who stood  like  a  rock and  displayed unprecedented leadership skills.

So where did things go wrong for ANP? Should we remain complacent with the argument that ANP failure was mainly because of its disconnection from the masses?  For most people this argument would be sufficient. However, for a more informed reader, we need to dig deeper and look for how social changes shape perceptions and why it is important in politics to give more heed to perceptions than reality.

Perceptions are largely the expectation of the people about their well-being. ANP‘s good performance did not leave a permanent impression on the people. All the good work that ANP did was not owned by the people or perceived as such. The party workers could not link renaming of the province to the material well-being of the people. The universities established were not properly managed or merit was not ensured so people could not trust the good intentions. The sacrifices of  ANP‘s workers were largely ignored and the  people  rather  linked them  with ANP‘s support for the US policies in the region.

Democracy is all about people‘s perceptions. The new media such as electronic media and social media have been instrumental not only to shape these perceptions but also to appeal to the popular perceptions. Criticism on government policies is one of the pastimes of modern media. It is generally difficult for the democratic governments to live up to the media expectation and in transitional democracies like ours the government is always in the negative ranking. The popular watchwords on media mostly favour the opposition. It is no surprise that PPP or ANP lost the popularity because of these factors. However, ANP‘s  dismal  performance has many other contributing factors too.

It is understandable that voters in elections looked for alternatives. Traditionally ANP has no single party alternative but parties like Jamet Ulema e Islam(JUI), Qaumi Watan Party(QWP), Paksitan People‘s Party(PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz(PML-N)  and Jumat-e-Islami(JI)  won against ANP on constituency level or through political alliances. In the recent elections the voters were relatively more aware and they were focused more on issues. This was the most favourable time for ANP. However, the Paksitan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) factor swept ANP from the province. The ANP mostly undermined the PTI.


Under the impression of the media,  youth from PTI launched a very affective campaign by raising the expectation level of the voters and offered a more participatory and pro-people politics. ANP on the other hand remained complacent with its constituency and candidate-based politics. Asfandiyar Wali Khan used to say that elections are 70 percent candidate and 30 percent party. Social and political realities change and elections 2013 have proved this change.   The virtual elimination of secular and nationalist parties from the political power corridors does not auger well for the people of KPK at large and particularly for the Pashtuns. It‘s time that the leadership of ANP  carry out in-depth analysis of the factors leading to its complete ouster from the political landscape ( at least for now) and put in place corrective measures in time for the next elections right from now on. One aspect that would require special attention is to attract the youth through concerted and imaginative efforts at the grass roots level.

by Muammad Arif
(Published in SAHAR   JULY 2013)  

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