All depends on the U.S–Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement and the possible stay of some of the US forces in Afghanistan. Close to this partnership will be India’s future involvement in Afghanistan.
On the other hand there is wait and see policy in Pakistan. As usual the All Parties Conference and its recommendations have provided an opportunity to Pakistan to buy some time in the name of dialogue with the militants and thus helping it to wait til a final decision about withdrawal of NATO forces and draw-down of US troops.
Meanwhile the militants have been successful to make a very visible presence on the scene and the increased attacks on military and civilians indicate they are taking advantage of the situation.
What may likely to be the worst case scenario?
Procrastination on the part of Pakistan in either initiating a dialogue process or a full-scale military operation may likely to give the militants an upper-hand in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. We may likely to see the writ of the state further weakened on the peripheries and growing insecurity and economic melt-down in the center. To be more specific Pakistan is already passing through this phase and it won’t make any difference if there is increase in militants’ presence and further security threats. However, such scenario would greatly undermine NATO’s ability to withdraw safely which would mean not an end to this war but the beginning of another turbulent phase in the history of Af-Pak region and specifically FATA. In very extreme condition the US/ NATO will have no other option but to look for alternative withdrawal route such as from Iran.
Do we have a visible win-win situation to the perceived end-game in Afghanistan? Will the so-called stakeholders (even if we exclude Taliban for the time-being) have the potential to reach such an agreement? Isn't our present strategy of striving for a strong bargaining position in Afghanistan’s so-called end-game at the expense of destabilizing our own state and society a gamble?
On the other hand there is wait and see policy in Pakistan. As usual the All Parties Conference and its recommendations have provided an opportunity to Pakistan to buy some time in the name of dialogue with the militants and thus helping it to wait til a final decision about withdrawal of NATO forces and draw-down of US troops.
Meanwhile the militants have been successful to make a very visible presence on the scene and the increased attacks on military and civilians indicate they are taking advantage of the situation.
What may likely to be the worst case scenario?
Procrastination on the part of Pakistan in either initiating a dialogue process or a full-scale military operation may likely to give the militants an upper-hand in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. We may likely to see the writ of the state further weakened on the peripheries and growing insecurity and economic melt-down in the center. To be more specific Pakistan is already passing through this phase and it won’t make any difference if there is increase in militants’ presence and further security threats. However, such scenario would greatly undermine NATO’s ability to withdraw safely which would mean not an end to this war but the beginning of another turbulent phase in the history of Af-Pak region and specifically FATA. In very extreme condition the US/ NATO will have no other option but to look for alternative withdrawal route such as from Iran.
Do we have a visible win-win situation to the perceived end-game in Afghanistan? Will the so-called stakeholders (even if we exclude Taliban for the time-being) have the potential to reach such an agreement? Isn't our present strategy of striving for a strong bargaining position in Afghanistan’s so-called end-game at the expense of destabilizing our own state and society a gamble?
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