The Vicious Cycle

1. Nationalists forces are looking towards the US.

2. Intelligentsia is looking towards the nationalist parties.

3. People are looking towards the intelligentsia.

4. US is looking towards Pakistan army which in turn is looking towards militants and millionaires



The cycle goes on. The cycle will disturb when large scale contradictions appear.





The traditional approach towards a “way out” is always in form of a “savior” like the Moses who freed the Israelites or the hero of modern science fiction “Matrix”. Such approach often rely on a flaw in the system—Moses was a prince who was supposed to give up his right of primogeniture for the sake of Israelites or Neo supersede the top agents of the Matrix. In both cases the predictions of Oracles come true. Is this all so simple?



No. One man, a leader, a savior or a flaw in the system cannot help the truth, the right, the just or the constructive to triumph. If such is the case then all great civilizations of the world would have passed the test of time and survived. Even in the eco-system, there would not have been any idea behind the word “extinction”. Even in nature death, degeneration, extinction or to be more scientific the “law of entropy” holds sway and always ready to make our efforts null and void. In nature there is the law of “natural selection” for the survival of a species while individuals and societies survive who are the most highly trained and physically energetic.



Personally, I don’t believe that the survival of Pashtuns is at stake. The more accurate description of Pashtuns is that they are caught in a vicious cycle of “wait and see”. Our every effort either in the form of an idea or a practical activity tends to join a stage where we have to wait and see. How this cycle is to be broken is a complex study which requires more of a Pashtun genius than a social or political scientist. Thus we must rely more on our traditional wisdom.



The cycle will collapse when large scale contradictions appear on its surface. We have to pinpoint all the contradictions and how our traditional wisdom will help us influence those contradictions in our favour?

The contradictions:

1. India: The involvement of India in the geopolitical parlay of Central Asia and its developing ties with the US are creating many contradictions. Until recently, Pakistan was US’ favourite (a client state in fact) but the Indo-US relation will seriously jeopardize US-Pak relations. For Pakistan it has deeper implications too. The way the sate structure is shaped on anti-India paraphernalia and the dual nature of Military as a strong defense against India and as a strong establishment within the country might receive some serious polarization within the sate.
2. Baluchistan: Baluchistan has surprisingly developed fissure in the state structure. Decentralization which has been previously denied to the smaller nation has become an inevitable option for the establishment vis-à-vis cries for liberation and independence.
3. Stable Afghan Government: A stable government in Afghanistan will opt for more autonomy in its foreign policy and the Durand Line card may resurface again.
4. Terrorism: The more US is caught in the quagmire of Afghanistan the better it is for the Afghan on both side of the Durand Line. Until recently Talibanization in the Pashtun belt and Pakistani sponsored insurgency in Afghanistan was a menace both for the US and Afghan but know Pashtun will benefit from the insurgency in Afghanistan though they have to bear its fall out in Pukhtunkhwa. The US will be having no option but to sit with Pashtuns and settle the issue once for all. The Pakistani establishment would possibly play the Pushtunistan card at that movement.

Policy Aternatives (Concluded)
1. ANP should categorically tell the US and international community to conclude its mission in Afghanistan and concentrate more on the reconstruction work.
2. ANP should sent a clear message to the Afghan government and the Afghan population especially the Pashtuns that ANP would never compromise on the principals laid down by the great Baacha Khan. That ANP would utilize all its effort to unite the Pashtuns, culturally, politically and geographically.
3. ANP should take a bold stance regarding the historical role of Pakistan army for its anti-Afgahn policies and its interference in the politics.
4. ANP should meticulously deal with the religious parties. After all they are Pashtuns.
5. No soft corner for Taliban or any other militant group. So far ANP's policy is good.
6. Start a healthy competition with PMAP and other Pashtuns nationalist groups and organizations. If possible work with them.