Terrorism: Policy and
Strategic Alternatives for AF-PAK REGION
Muhammad Arif Tangi
ariftangi@gmail.com
Now that President Barack Obama
has announced the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan till the end of
2014, the uncertainty in the AF-PAK region has increased manifold. The growing
crises on many fronts within Afghanistan and Pakistan have been disillusioning
many as more questions are being raised on the commitment of the international
community for bringing peace to the region and ensuring human security. The spectrum
of threats is such that no saner mind can look towards future with optimism.
As the US is failing to win the
so-called war against terror amid ever-increasing militancy and terrorism in
both Afghanistan and Pakistan and as she is looking further for a compromised
settlement of the Afghan stalemate by opening avenues for dialogues with the
Taliban, the outcomes of US withdrawal would seem more like a defeat for the
mighty United States. Alternatively, this would be considered a victory for
Islamic militants and their political supporters across the world who disdain
US hegemony as major hurdle in the propagation of Islam and the establishment
of Islamic Caliphate. Consequently, the world would be preparing itself for the
worst nightmares ahead—global Jihadi outfits with renewed vigor. This would
also raise many questions on the efficacy of international peace organizations
such as the United Nations and the Security Council for failing to ensure
global peace and security.
While the AF-PAK region will
largely decide the course of history in the times ahead, analysts would remain
engaged in gauging the efficacy of the existing policies and strategies to look
for alternatives. These analyses would largely be done in the backdrop of the
threats this region is facing and how effectively or poorly these threats are
being mitigated.
The Threat Factor
The threats in the region are
such that even one with common sense could predict a complete collapse of both
Afghanistan and Pakistan. Worst apprehensions are such that either the Jihadi
outfits would completely overthrow both the states (Pakistan being a nuclear
power) or they would find safer havens to attack their enemies across the
world. It would, therefore, be important to enlist some of the primary threats
vis-à-vis the existing policies and strategies in order to save the world from
the menace of terrorism.
Militant ideology is gaining
strength mainly because of a simple reason that the militants have been
sustaining the so-called global Jihad against the United States and its allies.
The United States’ direct but failed military involvement in Iraq and
Afghanistan has actually increased militancy manifold. Firstly, use of coercive
force cannot be calculated precisely and collateral damages are always greater.
Secondly, overthrowing a regime is mostly followed by compromised political
setups in the name of political stability. Thirdly, reviving a war-ravaged
economy is not an easy task as peace precedes investment. Fourth, the common people
desire radical and substantive changes to their living standard which could not
be made without a massive civilian aid. Fifth, the more time passes by the more
disillusionment one could see and which can often result into widespread
resentment. Thus wining a war is actually winning the hearts and minds of the
people which the US failed to win in Iraq and which we could see in Afghanistan
as the US is planning a pull out while leaving behind a big mess.
The militants cannot operate
without an ideology. Ideology could not gain strength save public support for
it or if public is neutral and not opposing militancy. It should be reminded
that in both Afghanistan and Pakistan we are facing a generation which was
ideologically nurtured by the US during Cold War. This generation finds pride
in global Jihad and this faith system is equally accepted by all and sundry to
a greater or lesser degree. It is no surprise that despite of spending billions
of dollars on this war the states and society in both Afghanistan and Pakistan
remain hostage to this ideology. More surprisingly this ideology has virtually
paralyzed the Pakistani state while Afghanistan is relatively less contagious.
The AF-PAK region will mostly
remain ambivalent towards militancy. Firstly, countering militancy would
require the governments and security apparatus to wage a war against itself
which is like cutting a cancerous parts of one’s body. Secondly, the will,
commitment, inspiration or motivation for such a fatal surgery would only come
through a deeper understanding of the impending catastrophes to the states and
society at the hands of the militants. Thirdly, those who have this deeper
understanding are fewer in number, having less capacity and are mostly outside
the power structures with little say in the affairs of state and society.
Now that the US is pulling out
from Afghanistan and that Pakistan is completely engulfed by terrorists the
only ray of hope is to understand the fundamental flaw in countering terrorism.
This flaw is lack of understanding of the militants discourse. Even if this
flaw is understood the problem will not be solved overnight. We need to have
fresh policies and strategies as a new beginning for bringing peace to the
region.
Policy and Strategic
Alternatives for Afghanistan and Pakistan:
Irrespective of the reasons why the
international community is fast losing its commitment for the AF-PAK region and
realizing the deadly implications of an impending pull out by the United
States, both the country should work out policy and strategic alternatives with
a focus on saying a big “NO” to the US for dictating policy guidelines for the
region. This is the first and foremost step towards developing an indigenous counter-terrorism
mechanism by taking into consideration the national sovereignty of each country
(Afghanistan and Pakistan) and respecting the same for reducing the trust
deficit. Surely this is a long journey but setting up a right direction would
itself mean covering half of the distance. Both the states must peruse
independent and sovereign policy alternatives with or without mutual
cooperation but with a focus to understand terrorism as major threat to the
survival of both the countries. The policies would only find public supports if
they are detached from the US as majority of the people are already suspicious about
the US’ role in the region.
The policy alternatives shall
also be having a religious or Islamic context. Keeping in view the widespread
perceptions against the so-called “infidel west”, the policy alternatives must
redefine the very meaning of Jihad. This could only be done if we rely less and
less on our “friends” in the Middle East who support extremist Wahabi
interpretation of Islam which form the core of militants’ ideology. The
religious scholars must come forward with innovative ideas for peaceful
propagation of Islam and coexistence through laws, foreign policy, administration,
education system and media.
On strategic level a direct
military action against the terrorists shall be accompanied by a psychological
warfare which aims at destroying support base for the militants. This would
mean deconstructing the militants discourse aggressively and ensuring a
foolproof society where terrorists’ ideology could not permeate. Much has been
written on the constituents of this discourse. It is now time to act wisely,
firmly and with a broader vision.